Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.51 – 294.15

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.9 ±13.2

6768Denison Robo-Jackets

Season APEX 29.9Event APEX -0.12Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 9.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 207.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.4 ±10.5

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 157.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 122.8Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 13.43Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6768, 9492, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6768, 9492, 6369

Auto

38.8 19%

Teleop

108.5 53%

Endgame

57.5 28%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6773, 3310, 8732

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6773, 3310, 8732

Auto

59.3 21%

Teleop

170.9 61%

Endgame

48.9 18%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.5pts

Blue projected score294.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.6
Score range: 195–317
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 128.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.9Season APEX386.4

38.8Auto59.3

108.5Teleop170.9

57.5Endgame48.9

87Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	84
teleop	140	100
endgame	64	29
foul	0	5
total	261	218

Result

Final score

261 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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