Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.55 – 94.87

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±11.7

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 29.5Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 26.14Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 15.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.6 ±12.2

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 20.08Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 49.38Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 25.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5411, 8528, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5411, 8528, 10994

Auto

22.7 32%

Teleop

30.2 43%

Endgame

17.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2657, 1164, 6526

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2657, 1164, 6526

Auto

28.5 31%

Teleop

48.7 52%

Endgame

15.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.6pts

Blue projected score94.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 49–118
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.5Season APEX139.6

22.7Auto28.5

30.2Teleop48.7

17.8Endgame15.6

21Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	29
teleop	9	34
endgame	14	14
foul	0	0
total	38	77

Result

Final score

38 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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