Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.76 – 124.48

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 106.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.5 ±14.1

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 31.01Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 14.74Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.01Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±12.2

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 84.59Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 39.75Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 0.14Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9136, 9457, 5866

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9136, 9457, 5866

Auto

14.7 29%

Teleop

20.7 41%

Endgame

15.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4063, 7540, 9080

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4063, 7540, 9080

Auto

19.4 17%

Teleop

60.3 53%

Endgame

35.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.8pts

Blue projected score124.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 30–147
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.5Season APEX209.3

14.7Auto19.4

20.7Teleop60.3

15.3Endgame35.1

91Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	34
teleop	113	89
endgame	76	58
foul	0	0
total	209	181

Result

Final score

209 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 106.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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