Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.3 – 48.93

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288 ±11.7

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 124.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 14.15Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 85.55Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.8 ±12.2

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 12.99Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 10.66Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 25.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3310, 2657, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 2657, 4063

Auto

49.5 23%

Teleop

122.7 56%

Endgame

47.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7271, 11469, 9492

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7271, 11469, 9492

Auto

12.6 26%

Teleop

21.8 44%

Endgame

14.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.3pts

Blue projected score48.9pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.4
Score range: 23–250
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288Season APEX157.8

49.5Auto12.6

122.7Teleop21.8

47.3Endgame14.7

59Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	6
teleop	126	15
endgame	29	13
foul	0	0
total	192	34

Result

Final score

192 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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