Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.4 – 151.78

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162 ±12.2

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 33.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 25.34Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 29.24Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±13.1

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 9.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 16.37Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 125.87Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9105, 4153, 8528

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9105, 4153, 8528

Auto

20.8 22%

Teleop

46.3 50%

Endgame

25.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9492, 9457, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9492, 9457, 3310

Auto

38.1 27%

Teleop

75.0 53%

Endgame

28.1 20%

Strengths

· 3310 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.4pts

Blue projected score151.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.4
Score range: 65–175
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162Season APEX221.4

20.8Auto38.1

46.3Teleop75

25.6Endgame28.1

19Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	44
teleop	30	67
endgame	18	34
foul	0	5
total	64	150

Result

Final score

64 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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