Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.75 – 211.7

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±10.4

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 19.18Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 35.67Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 36.9Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.1 ±11.1

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 22.72Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 153.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 35.31Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10994, 5411, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10994, 5411, 4734

Auto

28.8 33%

Teleop

50.8 58%

Endgame

8.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6974, 6773, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6974, 6773, 7540

Auto

35.5 18%

Teleop

119.9 60%

Endgame

43.1 22%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.8pts

Blue projected score211.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.9
Score range: 69–235
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 126.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.6Season APEX309.1

28.8Auto35.5

50.8Teleop119.9

8Endgame43.1

0Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	55
teleop	21	144
endgame	26	72
foul	0	0
total	68	271

Result

Final score

68 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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