Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.4 – 119.85

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±12.2

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 31.28Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 10.22Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 32.9Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.4 ±11.7

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 35.23Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 71.35Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 13.27Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7540, 5866, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 5866, 4734

Auto

18.8 29%

Teleop

26.1 41%

Endgame

19.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8528, 4192, 9492

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8528, 4192, 9492

Auto

27.5 23%

Teleop

57.8 49%

Endgame

33.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score119.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.4
Score range: 51–143
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.1Season APEX202.4

18.8Auto27.5

26.1Teleop57.8

19.2Endgame33.7

7Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	26
teleop	41	39
endgame	22	36
foul	30	0
total	118	101

Result

Final score

118 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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