Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.13 – 284.36

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.1 ±14.4

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 7.65Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 11.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 23.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.7 ±9.3

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 166.29Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 73.79Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 44.28Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11469, 8512, 4153

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11469, 8512, 4153

Auto

19.5 37%

Teleop

22.2 42%

Endgame

11.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6773, 4206, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6773, 4206, 9136

Auto

43.5 15%

Teleop

192.5 67%

Endgame

50.5 18%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.1pts

Blue projected score284.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -242.2
Score range: 20–306
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 122.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.1Season APEX474.7

19.5Auto43.5

22.2Teleop192.5

11.3Endgame50.5

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	28
teleop	36	128
endgame	19	41
foul	5	0
total	72	197

Result

Final score

72 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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