Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.84 – 87.87

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.4 ±11.6

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 20.99Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 8.89Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 22.96Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.3 ±11

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 37.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 17.12Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 33.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10994, 10312, 6974

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10994, 10312, 6974

Auto

19.1 32%

Teleop

32.5 55%

Endgame

7.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1164, 9492, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 9492, 4734

Auto

20.4 26%

Teleop

39.9 51%

Endgame

18.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.8pts

Blue projected score87.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35
Score range: 31–110
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.4Season APEX199.3

19.1Auto20.4

32.5Teleop39.9

7.7Endgame18.7

36Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	30
teleop	48	59
endgame	20	12
foul	0	0
total	81	101

Result

Final score

81 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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