Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
59.26 – 79.63
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
93 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.5 ±13.6
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 16.72Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 20.02Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 22.52Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.5 ±13.9
Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 66.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 29.9Event APEX -7.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 20.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5613, 5411, 9457
39
/ 100 compatProjected
59.3 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 5613, 5411, 9457
Auto
19.6 35%
Teleop
22.2 39%
Endgame
14.5 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4192, 6768, 11200
41
/ 100 compatProjected
79.6 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4192, 6768, 11200
Auto
24.5 32%
Teleop
23.4 31%
Endgame
27.9 37%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score59.3pts
Blue projected score79.6pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -20.4
- Score range
- 37–102
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
136.5Season APEX168.5
19.6Auto24.5
22.2Teleop23.4
14.5Endgame27.9
65Consistency31
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 16 |
| teleop | 38 | 51 |
| endgame | 19 | 18 |
| foul | 15 | 30 |
| total | 93 | 115 |
Result
Final score
93 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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