Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.5 – 89.59

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.7 ±12.2

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 0.37Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 19.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 42.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.7 ±13.9

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 37.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 11.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 40.56Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9080, 4153, 1164

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9080, 4153, 1164

Auto

18.2 28%

Teleop

33.9 53%

Endgame

12.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11200, 8512, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11200, 8512, 9136

Auto

13.0 15%

Teleop

47.5 53%

Endgame

28.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.1
Score range: 37–116
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.7Season APEX125.7

18.2Auto13

33.9Teleop47.5

12.2Endgame28.8

13Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	35	40
endgame	8	19
foul	0	0
total	55	73

Result

Final score

55 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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