Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.87 – 53.21

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±11.7

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 37.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 33.42Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 73.11Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.2 ±12.2

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 23.11Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 15.24Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 14.86Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3561, 8528, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 8528, 4063

Auto

31.7 22%

Teleop

77.0 53%

Endgame

35.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4153, 5866, 8732

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4153, 5866, 8732

Auto

13.9 27%

Teleop

22.4 44%

Endgame

15.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score53.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.7
Score range: 31–166
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254Season APEX133.2

31.7Auto13.9

77Teleop22.4

35.7Endgame15.1

66Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	88	30
endgame	54	19
foul	0	0
total	174	63

Result

Final score

174 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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