Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.68 – 157.71

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.6 ±12

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 17.25Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 207.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 12.52Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±13.9

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 13.69Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 21.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 122.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7271, 6369, 2657

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7271, 6369, 2657

Auto

46.3 19%

Teleop

138.4 58%

Endgame

54.4 23%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8512, 6526, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8512, 6526, 3310

Auto

40.8 27%

Teleop

82.8 56%

Endgame

24.9 17%

Strengths

· 3310 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.7pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80
Score range: 136–260
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.6Season APEX209.1

46.3Auto40.8

138.4Teleop82.8

54.4Endgame24.9

29Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	40
teleop	145	80
endgame	64	31
foul	0	0
total	248	151

Result

Final score

248 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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