Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.27 – 53.95

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±10.5

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 71.05Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 28.68Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 40.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.5 ±12.2

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 23.66Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 5.49Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 24.8Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 7540, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4206, 7540, 9136

Auto

18.5 14%

Teleop

82.3 61%

Endgame

33.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10994, 9080, 9105

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10994, 9080, 9105

Auto

13.8 27%

Teleop

26.1 51%

Endgame

11.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.3pts

Blue projected score54pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.3
Score range: 32–162
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.9Season APEX127.5

18.5Auto13.8

82.3Teleop26.1

33.5Endgame11.5

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	16
teleop	108	23
endgame	37	4
foul	0	0
total	171	43

Result

Final score

171 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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