Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.32 – 34.91

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±13.6

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 76.27Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 13.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 26.24Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.4 ±14.8

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 16.83Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 24.97Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6768Denison Robo-Jackets

Season APEX 29.9Event APEX -6.89Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4063, 11469, 9457

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4063, 11469, 9457

Auto

23.3 18%

Teleop

64.6 51%

Endgame

39.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5613, 6974, 6768

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5613, 6974, 6768

Auto

11.4 88%

Teleop

-3.1 0%

Endgame

4.7 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.3pts

Blue projected score34.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.4
Score range: 13–138
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.8Season APEX115.4

23.3Auto11.4

64.6Teleop-3.1

39.6Endgame4.7

123Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	27	5
endgame	17	16
foul	15	0
total	92	34

Result

Final score

92 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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