Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.68 – 443.91

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.2 ±12.2

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 22.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 18.12Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 39.16Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 599.1 ±8.8

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 182.44Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 38.06Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 223.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11200, 5866, 1164

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11200, 5866, 1164

Auto

18.8 25%

Teleop

30.8 40%

Endgame

26.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6773, 4153, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6773, 4153, 6369

Auto

67.9 15%

Teleop

272.8 62%

Endgame

100.9 23%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.41 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.7pts

Blue projected score443.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -364.2
Score range: 58–466
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.2Season APEX599.1

18.8Auto67.9

30.8Teleop272.8

26.8Endgame100.9

14Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	66
teleop	19	201
endgame	24	62
foul	0	0
total	56	329

Result

Final score

56 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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