Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.65 – 144.27

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±11.2

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 163.77Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 17.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX -12.59Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±11.7

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 88.05Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 6.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 49.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6773, 6526, 9080

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6773, 6526, 9080

Auto

32.0 19%

Teleop

113.7 68%

Endgame

20.7 12%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4192, 2657, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4192, 2657, 4734

Auto

35.5 24%

Teleop

82.3 56%

Endgame

29.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score144.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 121–192
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.9Season APEX212.4

32Auto35.5

113.7Teleop82.3

20.7Endgame29.6

87Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	28
teleop	116	22
endgame	58	11
foul	15	0
total	223	61

Result

Final score

223 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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