Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.94 – 253.03

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 78 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±14.4

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 22.56Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 72.87Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 16.51Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.8 ±8.8

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 53.31Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 195.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 4.23Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8512, 4063, 10312

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8512, 4063, 10312

Auto

22.4 18%

Teleop

63.5 51%

Endgame

37.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 6369, 5411

/ 100 compat

Projected

253 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4206, 6369, 5411

Auto

39.6 16%

Teleop

150.4 60%

Endgame

62.2 25%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.9pts

Blue projected score253pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.1
Score range: 90–275
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.5Season APEX576.8

22.4Auto39.6

63.5Teleop150.4

37.7Endgame62.2

54Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	69
teleop	74	234
endgame	24	96
foul	0	0
total	122	399

Result

Final score

122 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 78 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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