Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.3 – 151.43

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.7 ±11

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 28.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 38.84Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 53.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.9 ±14.4

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 114.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6768Denison Robo-Jackets

Season APEX 29.9Event APEX 6.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 30.72Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9105, 11200, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9105, 11200, 3561

Auto

26.5 22%

Teleop

62.1 51%

Endgame

33.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 6768, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 6768, 7540

Auto

33.3 22%

Teleop

83.6 56%

Endgame

33.1 22%

Strengths

· 3310 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.3pts

Blue projected score151.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.1
Score range: 98–173
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 121.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.7Season APEX221.9

26.5Auto33.3

62.1Teleop83.6

33.9Endgame33.1

0Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	33
teleop	5	44
endgame	4	17
foul	5	65
total	34	159

Result

Final score

34 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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