Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.52 – 263.31

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.4 ±14.9

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 50.25Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 25.23Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX -6.96Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.8 ±10

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 178.38Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 15.7Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 69.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4734, 8512, 9080

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4734, 8512, 9080

Auto

14.6 25%

Teleop

33.7 57%

Endgame

11.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6369, 10312, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 10312, 4192

Auto

39.8 15%

Teleop

146.6 56%

Endgame

76.1 29%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.5pts

Blue projected score263.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.8
Score range: 47–285
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.4Season APEX443.8

14.6Auto39.8

33.7Teleop146.6

11.2Endgame76.1

35Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	58
teleop	21	174
endgame	11	79
foul	0	0
total	48	311

Result

Final score

48 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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