Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.23 – 231.26

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 91.5 ±16.9

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -8.4Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6768Denison Robo-Jackets

Season APEX 29.9Event APEX 6.01Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 10.62Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.9 ±10.5

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 60.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 7.2Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 163.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9457, 6768, 2657

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.2 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9457, 6768, 2657

Auto

12.5 100%

Teleop

-8.1 0%

Endgame

4.0 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4734, 5613, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4734, 5613, 6773

Auto

36.6 16%

Teleop

151.7 66%

Endgame

41.3 18%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.41 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.2pts

Blue projected score231.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -223
Score range: -14–253
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

91.5Season APEX356.9

12.5Auto36.6

-8.1Teleop151.7

4Endgame41.3

151Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	41
teleop	17	155
endgame	8	39
foul	0	15
total	44	250

Result

Final score

44 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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