Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.64 – 127.88

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.9 ±12.2

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 15.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX -11.92Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 22.38Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.1 ±14.4

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 9.39Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 75.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 43.04Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9492, 9080, 6974

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9492, 9080, 6974

Auto

4.9 24%

Teleop

4.9 24%

Endgame

10.7 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8732, 3561, 8512

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8732, 3561, 8512

Auto

26.1 22%

Teleop

70.9 60%

Endgame

20.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.6pts

Blue projected score127.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.2
Score range: 4–150
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.9Season APEX131.1

4.9Auto26.1

4.9Teleop70.9

10.7Endgame20.8

96Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	24
teleop	5	21
endgame	11	13
foul	15	0
total	43	58

Result

Final score

43 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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