Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.99 – 101.22

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.9 ±12.2

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 21.55Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 31.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 24.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.2 ±13.6

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 46.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 17.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 37.25Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5866, 6526, 6974

/ 100 compat

Projected

78 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5866, 6526, 6974

Auto

19.7 26%

Teleop

32.1 43%

Endgame

22.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4734, 9105, 9457

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4734, 9105, 9457

Auto

25.2 27%

Teleop

46.9 51%

Endgame

20.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78pts

Blue projected score101.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 52–127
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.9Season APEX152.2

19.7Auto25.2

32.1Teleop46.9

22.7Endgame20.4

26Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	10	19
endgame	3	8
foul	15	0
total	37	46

Result

Final score

37 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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