Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.2 – 56.95

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.3 ±10

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 160Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 10.52Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 14.68Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.5 ±13.9

6768Denison Robo-Jackets

Season APEX 29.9Event APEX 9.72Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 26.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 20.37Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6369, 10994, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 10994, 7540

Auto

34.6 19%

Teleop

83.0 47%

Endgame

59.9 34%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6768, 4153, 5411

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6768, 4153, 5411

Auto

21.4 37%

Teleop

27.9 48%

Endgame

8.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.2pts

Blue projected score57pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.3
Score range: 35–207
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.3Season APEX159.5

34.6Auto21.4

83Teleop27.9

59.9Endgame8.9

87Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	18
teleop	152	13
endgame	59	4
foul	0	0
total	259	35

Result

Final score

259 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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