Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.55 – 94.82

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.3 ±10.5

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX -2.46Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 22.46Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 141.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.6 ±13.3

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 44.56Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 26.47Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 23.79Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11469, 11200, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11469, 11200, 6773

Auto

30.6 18%

Teleop

103.1 61%

Endgame

34.9 21%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8528, 10312, 5866

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8528, 10312, 5866

Auto

20.6 22%

Teleop

45.9 50%

Endgame

25.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.6pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.7
Score range: 74–183
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.3Season APEX136.6

30.6Auto20.6

103.1Teleop45.9

34.9Endgame25.8

100Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	14
teleop	136	36
endgame	51	28
foul	0	0
total	225	78

Result

Final score

225 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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