Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.79 – 175.55

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.3 ±11

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 35.69Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 71.5Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.9 ±10.5

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 75.56Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 61.48Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 38.51Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9136, 4192, 5613

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9136, 4192, 5613

Auto

22.7 18%

Teleop

72.2 57%

Endgame

31.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4063, 4206, 1164

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4063, 4206, 1164

Auto

35.3 20%

Teleop

104.7 58%

Endgame

39.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.8pts

Blue projected score175.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: 108–198
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.3Season APEX367.9

22.7Auto35.3

72.2Teleop104.7

31.2Endgame39.1

18Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	40
teleop	77	177
endgame	33	73
foul	0	0
total	129	290

Result

Final score

129 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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