Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.99 – 189.01

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 91.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.2 ±16.4

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -3.01Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -3.4Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 59.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.7 ±9.4

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 119.58Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 20.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 48.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7540, 9457, 8512

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 9457, 8512

Auto

13.5 26%

Teleop

21.2 41%

Endgame

17.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6369, 4734, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 4734, 3561

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

100.1 53%

Endgame

54.8 29%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53pts

Blue projected score189pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136
Score range: 32–210
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.2Season APEX484.7

13.5Auto33.3

21.2Teleop100.1

17Endgame54.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	58
teleop	24	201
endgame	29	79
foul	0	15
total	72	353

Result

Final score

72 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 91.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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