Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.26 – 153.4

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 142.6 ±14.9

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 35.76Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -7.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6768Denison Robo-Jackets

Season APEX 29.9Event APEX 10.52Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.2 ±11.2

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX -1.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 125.44Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 29.16Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8528, 9136, 6768

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8528, 9136, 6768

Auto

6.1 17%

Teleop

15.6 44%

Endgame

13.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6526, 6773, 7271

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6526, 6773, 7271

Auto

30.3 20%

Teleop

91.1 60%

Endgame

29.7 20%

Strengths

· 6773 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.3pts

Blue projected score153.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.1
Score range: 19–173
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

142.6Season APEX330.2

6.1Auto30.3

15.6Teleop91.1

13.9Endgame29.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	45
teleop	24	152
endgame	16	25
foul	0	0
total	60	222

Result

Final score

60 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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