Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.15 – 2.86

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 105 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±10.4

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 20.2Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX -4.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 46.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.3 ±14.1

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 20.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX -13.2Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -4.14Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4153, 4734, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4153, 4734, 3310

Auto

14.2 23%

Teleop

39.9 65%

Endgame

7.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1164, 10312, 9457

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 10312, 9457

Auto

3.1 100%

Teleop

-0.5 0%

Endgame

-0.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.2pts

Blue projected score2.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.3
Score range: -17–82
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX121.3

14.2Auto3.1

39.9Teleop-0.5

7Endgame-0.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	19
teleop	122	32
endgame	35	21
foul	0	0
total	203	72

Result

Final score

203 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 105 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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