Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.69 – 79.97

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.4 ±15.8

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 28.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 33.93Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 20.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228 ±14.5

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 18.61Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.61Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 30.75Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11281, 10308, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 10308, 5883

Auto

19.0 27%

Teleop

35.0 49%

Endgame

17.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9132, 9233, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9132, 9233, 11244

Auto

22.1 29%

Teleop

35.5 46%

Endgame

18.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.7pts

Blue projected score80pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.7
Score range: 59–104
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.4Season APEX228

19Auto22.1

35Teleop35.5

17.3Endgame18.8

51Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	35
teleop	36	76
endgame	20	36
foul	0	0
total	85	147

Result

Final score

85 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 34.7 pts

Match videos

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