Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.82 – 87

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

581 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.5 ±12.4

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 313.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 124.88Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 17.16Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.4 ±15.8

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 30.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 35.31Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 21.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 6436, 10141

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 6436, 10141

Auto

80.2 18%

Teleop

285.6 63%

Endgame

87.3 19%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11281, 10308, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 10308, 5883

Auto

17.5 23%

Teleop

39.2 52%

Endgame

18.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score455.8pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 368.8
Score range: 67–476
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.5Season APEX164.4

80.2Auto17.5

285.6Teleop39.2

87.3Endgame18.8

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	29
teleop	358	19
endgame	133	15
foul	0	10
total	581	73

Result

Final score

581 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Match videos

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