Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.8 – 87.75

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±16.2

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 4.98Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11036ALEV ROBOTICS

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 24.23Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 5.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±10.5

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 45.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 1.03Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 41.29Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11000, 11036, 6064

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11000, 11036, 6064

Auto

17.0 50%

Teleop

14.3 42%

Endgame

2.6 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9077, 9583, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9077, 9583, 3646

Auto

13.0 16%

Teleop

40.8 51%

Endgame

25.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score87.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.9
Score range: 15–108
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.6Season APEX296.2

17Auto13

14.3Teleop40.8

2.6Endgame25.6

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	7	81
endgame	5	37
foul	15	0
total	43	139

Result

Final score

43 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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