Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.42 – 68.03

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 129.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228 ±14.5

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 15.31Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 26.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 28.43Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±11

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 37.33Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 26.73Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 3.97Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9132, 9233, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9132, 9233, 11244

Auto

20.4 31%

Teleop

26.5 41%

Endgame

18.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 7611, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 7611, 4191

Auto

10.7 16%

Teleop

35.1 53%

Endgame

20.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.4pts

Blue projected score68pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.4
Score range: 48–90
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228Season APEX346.4

20.4Auto10.7

26.5Teleop35.1

18.4Endgame20.1

61Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	68	132
endgame	30	61
foul	0	60
total	122	276

Result

Final score

122 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 129.8 pts

Match videos

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