Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.58 – 63.47

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.3 ±12.7

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 18.46Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 78.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 65.31Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.7 ±12.1

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 30.37Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 15.21Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 17.89Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8242, 4481, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8242, 4481, 9029

Auto

32.0 20%

Teleop

96.9 60%

Endgame

33.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10428, 10043, 8153

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10428, 10043, 8153

Auto

10.9 17%

Teleop

37.3 59%

Endgame

14.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.6pts

Blue projected score63.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.1
Score range: 43–183
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 111.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.3Season APEX174.7

32Auto10.9

96.9Teleop37.3

33.7Endgame14.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	14
teleop	148	15
endgame	64	20
foul	0	0
total	251	49

Result

Final score

251 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Match videos

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