Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.57 – 88.26

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±10.5

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 45.53Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 5Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 49.04Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.4 ±15.8

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 29.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 36.37Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 21.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3646, 9583, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 9583, 9077

Auto

12.8 15%

Teleop

48.6 55%

Endgame

26.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11281, 10308, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 10308, 5883

Auto

15.9 21%

Teleop

39.4 51%

Endgame

21.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 68–120
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 111.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.2Season APEX164.4

12.8Auto15.9

48.6Teleop39.4

26.7Endgame21.5

19Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	27
teleop	22	47
endgame	27	12
foul	0	15
total	65	101

Result

Final score

65 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.