Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.84 – 88.57

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±11

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 53.12Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 23.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 43.43Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228 ±14.5

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 21.59Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 33.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 33.21Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6431, 4191, 7611

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 4191, 7611

Auto

15.7 15%

Teleop

61.1 57%

Endgame

30.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9132, 9233, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9132, 9233, 11244

Auto

23.3 27%

Teleop

41.0 48%

Endgame

21.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.3
Score range: 67–142
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.4Season APEX228

15.7Auto23.3

61.1Teleop41

30.2Endgame21.1

0Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	35
teleop	24	48
endgame	19	15
foul	0	15
total	58	113

Result

Final score

58 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 pts

Match videos

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