Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.79 – 91.87

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±11

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 53.41Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 22.5Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 42.88Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±10.5

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 42.72Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 2.07Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 47.08Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6431, 4191, 7611

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 4191, 7611

Auto

14.5 14%

Teleop

60.2 56%

Endgame

32.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3646, 9583, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 9583, 9077

Auto

13.4 16%

Teleop

45.3 53%

Endgame

26.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.8pts

Blue projected score91.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 71–140
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.4Season APEX296.2

14.5Auto13.4

60.2Teleop45.3

32.3Endgame26.2

0Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	22
teleop	70	56
endgame	17	19
foul	20	0
total	133	97

Result

Final score

133 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Match videos

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