Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.9 – 43.5

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

377 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 136.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±13.6

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 13.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 79.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 12.86Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.2 ±16.9

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 34.28Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 17.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX -8.13Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11281, 9483, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 9483, 3646

Auto

16.4 15%

Teleop

76.9 71%

Endgame

14.4 13%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11416, 9233, 10146

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11416, 9233, 10146

Auto

10.8 28%

Teleop

14.1 36%

Endgame

14.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score43.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.4
Score range: 29–121
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 84.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX124.2

16.4Auto10.8

76.9Teleop14.1

14.4Endgame14.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	5
teleop	248	27
endgame	42	14
foul	0	0
total	377	46

Result

Final score

377 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 136.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.