Qualification · Qualification 8
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
35.97 – 34.62
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
96 – 14
Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 167Event APEX -1.79Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.7Event APEX -3.38Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 41.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±15.1
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 41.14Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 3.25Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX -9.77Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11244, 10043, 4481
45
/ 100 compatProjected
36 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 11244, 10043, 4481
Auto
9.4 30%
Teleop
13.1 42%
Endgame
8.8 28%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10308, 8557, 11000
29
/ 100 compatProjected
34.6 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 10308, 8557, 11000
Auto
10.9 38%
Teleop
3.4 12%
Endgame
14.1 50%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.29
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score36pts
Blue projected score34.6pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 25%, blue 21%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 1.4
- Score range
- 19–52
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
506.6Season APEX210.9
9.4Auto10.9
13.1Teleop3.4
8.8Endgame14.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 1 |
| teleop | 40 | 12 |
| endgame | 40 | 1 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 96 | 14 |
Result
Final score
96 – 14
Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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