Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.09 – 84.52

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±14.6

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 25.68Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 11.83Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 24.58Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±12.9

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 41.24Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 32.28Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 11Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7611, 8557, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7611, 8557, 11416

Auto

5.5 9%

Teleop

39.2 63%

Endgame

17.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 10428, 10141

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 10428, 10141

Auto

18.8 24%

Teleop

36.7 47%

Endgame

22.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.1pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 43–104
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 107.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.1Season APEX263.5

5.5Auto18.8

39.2Teleop36.7

17.8Endgame22.5

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	28
teleop	33	28
endgame	13	9
foul	30	0
total	82	65

Result

Final score

82 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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