Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.32 – 88.7

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±14.9

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 23.65Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 60.3Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 7.37Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.4 ±15.8

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 33.83Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 20.45Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11036ALEV ROBOTICS

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 34.42Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9595, 9029, 11000

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9595, 9029, 11000

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

58.8 63%

Endgame

16.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10308, 8153, 11036

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10308, 8153, 11036

Auto

18.8 21%

Teleop

50.6 57%

Endgame

19.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.3pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.6
Score range: 69–111
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 109.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX170.4

18.2Auto18.8

58.8Teleop50.6

16Endgame19.3

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	53	26
endgame	10	10
foul	0	5
total	80	61

Result

Final score

80 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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