Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.17 – 86.5

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 95.7 ±15.7

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.01Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 6.12Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 23.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±15.1

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 10.82Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 86.2Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -10.52Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 10146, 11281

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 10146, 11281

Auto

12.7 52%

Teleop

0.9 4%

Endgame

11.0 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10141, 4481, 7296

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10141, 4481, 7296

Auto

13.9 18%

Teleop

48.7 62%

Endgame

15.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.2pts

Blue projected score86.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.3
Score range: 5–107
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

95.7Season APEX367.6

12.7Auto13.9

0.9Teleop48.7

11Endgame15.5

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	51
teleop	18	31
endgame	14	15
foul	65	0
total	101	97

Result

Final score

101 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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