Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.87 – 73.94

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.3 ±16

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 19.17Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 4.69Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 46.01Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.2 ±13.6

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 15.17Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 21.79Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 36.98Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10050, 6064, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10050, 6064, 9077

Auto

9.3 14%

Teleop

41.7 65%

Endgame

13.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10043, 11416, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 11416, 6431

Auto

13.1 18%

Teleop

33.5 46%

Endgame

26.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.9pts

Blue projected score73.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.1
Score range: 50–94
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.3Season APEX228.2

9.3Auto13.1

41.7Teleop33.5

13.4Endgame26.5

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	0
teleop	59	93
endgame	11	21
foul	15	0
total	99	114

Result

Final score

99 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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