Qualification · Qualification 56
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
343.57 – 161
91%9%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
303 – 197
Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 317.36Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 14.98Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 11.23Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.9 ±12.2
Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 9.29Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 105.84Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 45.87Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9483, 4191, 10064
79
/ 100 compatProjected
343.6 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 9483, 4191, 10064
Auto
58.4 17%
Teleop
207.6 61%
Endgame
73.2 22%
Strengths
- · 9483 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8557, 6436, 3646
80
/ 100 compatProjected
161 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 8557, 6436, 3646
Auto
24.8 16%
Teleop
92.8 59%
Endgame
40.0 25%
Strengths
- · 6436 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score343.6pts
Blue projected score161pts
Red win probability91%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 182.6
- Score range
- 142–363
- Upset likelihood
- 9%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
528.1Season APEX407.9
58.4Auto24.8
207.6Teleop92.8
73.2Endgame40
24Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 73 | 37 |
| teleop | 198 | 105 |
| endgame | 32 | 55 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 303 | 197 |
Result
Final score
303 – 197
Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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