Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.24 – 62.02

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.1 ±12.7

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 18.39Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 6.95Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 28.9Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±13.9

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 17.56Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 20.05Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 24.41Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8153, 9601, 10428

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 9601, 10428

Auto

9.3 20%

Teleop

32.1 69%

Endgame

5.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9132, 7611, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9132, 7611, 11244

Auto

19.6 39%

Teleop

17.3 35%

Endgame

12.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.2pts

Blue projected score62pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 35–81
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.1Season APEX249.5

9.3Auto19.6

32.1Teleop17.3

5.1Endgame12.9

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	52	71
endgame	22	33
foul	0	0
total	90	125

Result

Final score

90 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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