Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.94 – 64.98

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 26

Prediction missed · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±15.3

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 15.47Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 20.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 19.2Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.2 ±16.2

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 13.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 22.93Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 28.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10050, 5883, 9233

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10050, 5883, 9233

Auto

9.5 18%

Teleop

33.6 64%

Endgame

9.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11000, 8242, 11281

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11000, 8242, 11281

Auto

17.7 29%

Teleop

28.6 47%

Endgame

15.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.9pts

Blue projected score65pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 36–84
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 107.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.3Season APEX155.2

9.5Auto17.7

33.6Teleop28.6

9Endgame15

73Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	7
teleop	72	13
endgame	25	6
foul	0	0
total	112	26

Result

Final score

112 – 26

Prediction missed · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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