Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.72 – 95.13

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.2 ±14.9

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 9.92Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 6.56Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 15.24Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.3 ±10.5

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 41.63Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 59.24Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -5.74Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8557, 10146, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8557, 10146, 4191

Auto

4.1 16%

Teleop

12.5 49%

Endgame

9.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3646, 9029, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 9029, 9583

Auto

24.3 25%

Teleop

54.9 57%

Endgame

17.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.7pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.4
Score range: 13–114
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.2Season APEX362.3

4.1Auto24.3

12.5Teleop54.9

9.1Endgame17.3

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	15
teleop	12	75
endgame	22	45
foul	0	0
total	39	135

Result

Final score

39 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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