Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.08 – 53.3

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±16.9

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -14.3Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 20.21Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 17.17Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.6 ±12.7

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 21.02Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 17.42Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 14.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7296, 11244, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7296, 11244, 11416

Auto

6.5 37%

Teleop

5.3 30%

Endgame

5.9 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8153, 10043, 10064

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 10043, 10064

Auto

10.4 19%

Teleop

25.0 46%

Endgame

19.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.1pts

Blue projected score53.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 3–73
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.7Season APEX154.6

6.5Auto10.4

5.3Teleop25

5.9Endgame19.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	9
teleop	30	14
endgame	23	7
foul	15	0
total	78	30

Result

Final score

78 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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