Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.3 – 323.01

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.7 ±16.4

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 37.62Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 28.22Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 23.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.3 ±12.2

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 10.7Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 4.55Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 307.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10308, 9595, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10308, 9595, 5883

Auto

16.9 20%

Teleop

46.6 54%

Endgame

22.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7611, 11000, 9483

/ 100 compat

Projected

323 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7611, 11000, 9483

Auto

54.7 17%

Teleop

210.2 66%

Endgame

52.4 17%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.38 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score323pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -233.7
Score range: 70–342
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.7Season APEX564.3

16.9Auto54.7

46.6Teleop210.2

22.1Endgame52.4

40Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	69
teleop	33	270
endgame	17	87
foul	5	0
total	70	426

Result

Final score

70 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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