Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.39 – 183.44

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.3 ±15.3

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 1.99Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 42.66Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 18.74Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.7 ±12.7

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 33.2Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 100.64Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 49.6Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10064, 3646, 9595

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 3646, 9595

Auto

18.6 28%

Teleop

28.8 43%

Endgame

19.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10308, 4481, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10308, 4481, 6431

Auto

39.0 22%

Teleop

96.4 53%

Endgame

44.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.4pts

Blue projected score183.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120
Score range: 40–206
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.3Season APEX502.7

18.6Auto39

28.8Teleop96.4

19.9Endgame44.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	4	66
endgame	29	41
foul	0	5
total	45	144

Result

Final score

45 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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